CONFIDENCE - Worldwide business and consumer confidence Indexes

Title of your idea
Confidence Indexes: how businesses and consumers are feeling

Summary Description
The economy is standing on two feet: offer and demand.
Businesses are the one who provide the offer.
Consumers are the one who provide the demand.
Should one of them being missing, growth could not occurs well.

I was looking for a tracker that could :

  • give a quick overview of the global economical health of the global economy and let you bet on the growth or not of the economic.
  • give it in a proactive way (trying to predict the future) more than on a reactive way (describing what already happened).

Which metric will your synth track?
CONFIDENCE will be an index representing the feelings of those who impact the health of the economy, on a 0 (low) to 100 (high) grade.
Are they confident, do you think tomorrow will be fine?
Or are they afraid of what will come?
=> One metric will track The Business Confidence Index. Are companies going to invest, expand, produce or are they planing to cut off? That is $CONFIDENCE_B
=> Another would track The Consumer Confidence Index. Are they planing to buy stuff or saving their money? That is $CONFIDENCE_C
=> a last one would be the average of the 2 previous one. That is $CONFIDENCE

Indexes could be worldwide, by economic are (Europe, NAFTA, etc.) or by country

You are short on the worldwide Economy? Short the CONFIDENCE-WW tokens and cover yourself should a recession occure.
You are long on the US recovery but short on the European one? Long the CONFINDENCE-US and short the CONFIDENCE-EU one!
You believe japanese people will face the coronavirus crisis with no fear? Long the COFINDENCE_C-JAP!

How will you get data for your metric
Every developed country share on a monthly basis these indicators (ex here for Europe, for the businesses Leading indicators - Business confidence index (BCI) - OECD Data).
The data is public, can’t be corrupted.
Some countries (China, etc.) might be less reliable than others but investors are already used with that behavior.

What collateral would you use for this synthetic
Stable coin like USCD

2 Likes

This is really cool - kind of reminds me of the crypto fear / greed indicator haha

1 Like

Haha, true.

I like the “forecast” thing: tracking the future and not the present.